European Central Bank: Can Macroeconomists Forecast Risk? Event-Based Evidence From The Euro Area SPF

Recent experience with macroeconomic forecasting in an environment characterised by high levels of macroeconomic volatility has both highlighted the strong limitations to point forecasts as a sufficient basis for forward-looking policy deliberations and strengthened the demand for quality information on the risks surrounding the economic outlook.

Indeed information from the entire predictive densities of future macroeconomic outcomes has an important theoretical justification in the decision

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